Donald Trump overtakes Hillary Clinton in a coveted polling average for the first time

July 2024 · 2 minute read
2016-05-23T13:41:46Z

Donald Trump has become — at least for the time being — the presidential frontrunner.

The latest RealClearPolitics average of several recent polls put Trump ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by one-fifth of a percentage point. It is the first time Trump has overtaken Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, in the gold-standard polling average.

Donald Trump. AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File

Five recent polls were considered by RealClearPolitics. Trump led by 5 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, while he held leads of 3 points and 2 points over Clinton in the most recent Fox News and ABC News/Washington Post polls.

Clinton, meanwhile, held a 6-point lead over the Manhattan billionaire in the CBS News/New York Times poll. She was also up by 3 points in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Trump appears to be benefiting from the relative consolidation of Republican voters around him as the presumptive GOP nominee. Clinton is still facing a heated primary challenge from Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator who has vowed to take the fight to the Democratic convention floor in July.

Of note, the Rasmussen poll, which showed Trump leading by his biggest margin, was one of the most inaccurate at predicting the 2012 race.

Still, the below chart shows how quickly Trump has closed what was once a double-digit gap with Clinton:

Screenshot/RealClearPolitics

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